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E-commerce logistics
电商物流之争
英文部分选自经济学人20210529期Business版块
E-commerce logistics
电商物流之争
Formula races
激烈如方程式赛车
When it comes to delivery, Chinese tech titans take divergent routes
中国科技巨头开发多样化派送赛道
In 2019 RICHARD LIUtold couriers working forJD.com that the Chinese e-commerce giant he founded would cancel their base pay after a 2.8bn yuan ($438m) loss the previous year, its 12th consecutive one in the red. Riders would make only a commission on deliveries. If the company did not cut back on spending, Mr Liu warned, it would go bust in two years.
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刘强东在2019年表示，由于其创立的电子商务巨头京东上年亏损28亿元（合4.38亿美元），已连续12年处于赤字状态，因此将取消快递员的底薪，薪资结构转变为业务提成。刘强东警告，京东若再不削减开支，就会在两年内破产。
注：
小编查了一下，京东快递员以前是“底薪+提成”模式，现在没有底薪了，转变成“更有激励性的业务提成”。
Far from collapsing, two years onJDLogistics,JD.com’s delivery division, is on a roll, fuelled by a boom in Chinese e-commerce (see next article). Its parent company’s revenues jumped by 39%, year on year, in the first quarter, to 203bn yuan. On May 26th Pinduoduo, an upstart rival that also offers customers delivery byJDLogistics couriers, reported quarterly sales of 22bn yuan, 239% higher than a year ago.
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然而，两年后，借着中国电商蓬勃发展的东风（见下篇文章），京东的配送部门京东物流（JD Logistics）远没有偃旗息鼓，反而蒸蒸日上。其母公司第一季度的营收高达2030亿元，同比攀升39％。5月26日，电商界后起之秀拼多多也通过京东物流为客户提供送货服务，其公布的季度销售额为220亿元，同比增长239％。
The State Post Bureau expects logistics companies to deliver more than 100bn parcels this year, twice as many as in 2018. Overall spending on logistics in China is projected to hit 16trn yuan in 2021 and surpass 19trn yuan by 2025. That would make it the world’s largest market. The logistics business has also avoided the worst of the crackdown against Chinese big tech, which has seen firms such as Alibaba and Tencent (which owns a large stake inJD.com) taken to task by the Communist authorities over their growing power.
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据国家邮政局预计，今年中国物流包裹交易量超过1000亿件，比2018年翻了一番。目前预计2021年物流总支出达16万亿元，到2025年将突破19万亿元，中国将因此跃升为全球最大物流市场。同时，物流业也避开了中国科技巨头所遭遇的最严厉的打压，阿里巴巴和京东大股东腾讯等公司就因其实力日益雄厚而备受责难。
Domestic and foreign investors have been pouring money into the industry, say lawyers working on deals involving such businesses.JDLogistics has attracted investments from big private-equity groups such as Sequoia China and Hillhouse Capital. The market buzz around the firm is as frenetic as the pace at which its 190,000 workers fulfil and ferry orders. On May 21st it raised $3.2bn in Hong Kong’s second-largest initial public offering this year. Its shares are scheduled to begin trading on May 28th. The company’s backers are betting that its Amazon-like approach of creating a fully integrated delivery network has more mileage than a similar offering fromSFExpress, a stodgier incumbent similar to FedEx, or a rival model championed by Alibaba, which has plumped for a more distributed system.
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负责物流企业交易的律师表示，海内外投资人一直在往物流行业砸钱。京东物流目前已获得红杉中国（Sequoia China）、高瓴资本（Hillhouse Capital）等大型私募基金的注资。资本对京东物流的追逐和其19万名员工接单派货的速度一样迅猛。5月21日，京东物流首发募资32亿美元，成为港交所今年以来的第二大新股。该司股票预计于5月28日开始交易。京东物流的出资人认为，京东物流类似亚马逊的一体化配送网络，和顺丰快递（SF Express）、联邦快递（FedEx）之类配送模式固化的行业老大哥相比，更有优势，也优于阿里巴巴（Alibaba）倡导的分散配送体系。
JDLogistics is the only large Chinese delivery service to grow out of an e-commerce parent. It became a separate entity fromJD.com in 2017, in part so that it could take orders from other online retailers. It still delivers the bulk ofJD.com’s packages but a large chunk of its revenues now comes from orders outside the group. By owning much of its technology, lorries and warehouses, and directly employing staff, the firm has been able to ensure faster delivery times while monitoring quality. It operates China’s largest integrated logistics system, covering a good’s entire journey and including a fully autonomous fulfilment centre in Shanghai and driverless vehicles. The system can also flip into reverse, sending customer feedback to product designers that,JDLogistics claims, helps it produce better products and bolster brands.
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京东物流是中国国内唯一一家由电商培育的大型配送企业。2017年，京东物流从母公司京东商城（JD.com）分离出来独立运营，原因之一是为了承接其他线上零售商的配送订单。京东商城的大部分包裹仍旧由京东物流配送，不过，京东物流目前的大部分营收都来自外部订单。得益于自有的物流技术、配送车和仓库以及直聘员工，京东物流可在监控配送质量的同时，保证更快的配送速度。京东物流运营着中国最大的一体化物流体系，囊括无人配送车及位于上海的全自动订单履约中心，可覆盖商品配送全过程。该体系也可逆向运行，将客户反馈传达给产品设计师。京东物流宣称，此举有助于商家推出更好的产品，进而提升品牌声誉。
Contrast that with Cainiao, in which Alibaba has a controlling stake. It does not own many of the logistics assets in its network. Instead it allows around 3,000 logistics companies employing some 3m couriers to plug into its platform. Its aim is to integrate and streamline the vast delivery resources that already exist across China, rather than build its own. The company has teamed up with most large logistics services—and taken investments from them as well. Alibaba, for its part, has bought minority stakes in several large operators as a means of exerting more influence over the industry. Cainiao is not publicly listed and does not disclose many operational details or, for that matter, how exactly it makes money.
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相较之下，由阿里巴巴控股的菜鸟网络科技有限公司（Cainiao）并不直接持有其平台下的众多物流资产，而是允许约3000家物流公司的300多万名快递员为该平台工作。菜鸟的宗旨并非自建物流公司，而是整合目前国内海量的配送资源，提高配送效率。菜鸟已与国内大部分大型物流企业建立了合作关系，并拉到了投资。与此同时，阿里巴巴则通过少量持股几家物流巨头，对中国物流行业施加更多的影响力。菜鸟目前尚未上市，因此暂未披露包括盈利模式在内的许多经营信息。
In terms of revenues, bothJDLogistics and Cainiao trailSFSFExpress. Similarly toJD Logistics, that firm operates its own network. It still leads the market in “time-definite” delivery, a service that requires couriers to pick up and drop off parcels on a rapid, predetermined timetable. Like FedEx in America but unlikeJDand Cainiao, it did not emerge from the tech industry, so lacks its rivals’ technological chops.
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京东物流和菜鸟的营收不及顺丰快递。顺丰快递和京东物流一样，也拥有自己的运营网络。顺丰快递在送达时效性上依旧是业界翘楚。时效送达服务即运送人在预定时间段内快速收货、配送。不像京东物流和菜鸟，顺丰快递和美国联邦快递一样，并非科技产业起家，缺少其他竞争对手拥有的技术优势。
注：
Chops：expertise in a particilar filed or activity
Which model emerges victorious will ultimately depend on which best controls costs, thinks Eric Lin ofUBS, a bank.JDLogistics may have to lower prices further as it tries to get more business beyondJD.com. Analysts predict it could lose a combined 12bn yuan over the next three years, and turn a profit only in 2024.SFExpress is spending heavily to try to matchJD’s and Cainiao’s tech prowess. Its share price has fallen by around half since it issued a profit warning in April; it is expected to record a net loss of at least 900m yuan in the first quarter. Jefferies, an investment bank, points toSFExpress’s troubles as a clear sign of an ongoing price war.
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瑞银的林育民（Eric lin）表示，哪个“赛道”会产生赢家，最终取决于哪个“赛车手”能更好地控制成本。要想得到更多外部业务，京东可能需要进一步降价。分析师预测，京东物流未来三年会损失120亿元，到2024年才能扭亏为盈。顺丰快递在追赶京东物流和菜鸟的技术方面花费重金。4月顺丰快递发布盈利预警之后，股价便应声下跌大约一半。预计顺丰快递第一季度净亏损至少9亿元。投资银行Jefferies指出，顺丰快递的困境表明，物流公司之间的价格战将会持续。
In the long run Cainiao’s asset-light model may enable it to keep spending in check. But for the time being it, too, is thought to be having trouble containing costs. Like its rivals it must fend off new specialist competitors offering cut-price services in areas like cold-chain and last-mile delivery. Average delivery prices in America have increased by about 5% annually in recent years, according to Bernstein, a broker. In China they have been falling at an average rate of 10% for the past decade. As China’s online shoppers get their goods ever more quickly, investors may need to brace for longer waiting times before their logistics returns finally arrive.
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长远看来，菜鸟轻资产的运营模式可以让其控制开支。然而目前人们也认为它难以控制成本。菜鸟和其竞争对手都要提防在冷链运输和最后一公里运达方面提供降价服务的其他新晋物流公司。中间商Bernstein表示，近几年美国快递价格年均上涨约5%，而中国近十年快递的平均价格却以10%的速度下降。中国线上购物者收货时间越来越短，但是投资者们或许需要等待更长的时间，才能获取物流收益。
注：
Hold/keep sth in check: keep sth. under control so that it does not spread or get worse.
翻译组：
Rain，未来北外同传小香菜
Gretle，女，in-house英语翻译
Elle，女，哎…怎么说呢，心情复杂中…
校对组：
Cristina，立志成为最懒的懒猪
Gaga，女，半马关门前才完赛选手
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