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Business| Schumpeter
商业｜熊彼特
英文部分选自经济学人20230204期商业版块
Business| Schumpeter
商业｜熊彼特
China’s BYD is overtaking Tesla as the carmaker extraordinaire
比亚迪实力超群，逆势赶超特斯拉
It’s the Toyota of EVs
比亚迪——电动时代的丰田
To get a sense of why Toyoda Akio announced on January 26th that he would hand over the keys to the world’s biggest carmaker to Sato Koji, his number two, watch the surreal video from 2021 of the two of them driving Toyota’s first Lexus electric vehicle (EV). Mr Toyoda is at the wheel. At first, it is clear that he is a bit of an EV sceptic: he notes that the car feels heavy to drive. Then he puts his foot to the floor, and as the speed picks up he whoops with joy like an overexcited Top Gun pilot. It is cringeworthy—but pertinent. Toyota is seen by many as an EV laggard. In announcing his decision to vacate his position to Mr Sato, who is 13 years younger, the chairman-designate made clear it was time for a new generation to speed up the move into the electric era.
要想弄清丰田章男为何于1月26日宣布卸任社长，将全球最大汽车制造商的领导权交给集团二把手佐藤恒治，请观看2021年两人驾驶丰田首辆雷克萨斯电动汽车的怪诞视频。当时开车的是丰田章男。很明显，一开始他对电动汽车半信半疑：他说这车开起来很重。但一脚“油”门下去，汽车飞快加速，他高兴得大叫，就像《壮志凌云》里兴奋过头的飞行员一样。画面有些尴尬，但与丰田章男此次决定前后呼应。很多人认为丰田公司在电动汽车领域有些落后。在丰田章男宣布”交棒”给比自己小13岁的佐藤恒治后，即将就任丰田社长的佐藤誓言，新一代领导层将引领丰田加速迈进电动车时代。
注释：
1.Top Gun（《壮志凌云》），一部美国电影，讲述了一位美国海军中尉的飞行故事。
2.at the wheel: drive掌舵，驾驶
Much of the media commentary surrounding Mr Toyoda’s move casts it as a response to Tesla. That is too Western-centric. Tesla may be the world’s biggest EV producer and, according to Elon Musk, its boss, so far ahead of the competition that he cannot see the number two with a telescope. Yet it ignores a Chinese newcomer that, for all Mr Musk’s bombast, Toyota no doubt takes as seriously as it does Tesla. It is BYD, which this year may overtake Tesla as the biggest global seller of pure EVs (not including hybrids, which it also makes). BYD is Toyota’s EV partner in China as well as a rising competitor globally. More important, it emulates many of the traits that for decades have made Toyota the world’s most successful car company.
很多关注丰田换帅的媒体评论将此举描述成抗衡特斯拉的具体行动，但此类说法过于西方中心论。特斯拉当下可能确实是全球最大的电动汽车制造商；而且按照其CEO埃隆·马斯克的说法，特斯拉遥遥领先对手，即使是在望远镜中也看不到第二名的身影。然而，特斯拉忽略了比亚迪——任凭马斯克喊破嗓子，在丰田看来特斯拉和这位中国新秀依旧是难分伯仲。即便不计入其生产的混合动力车，比亚迪预计也会于今年超越特斯拉，成为全球最大的纯电动汽车销售商的。在中国，比亚迪是丰田的电动车合作伙伴，放眼世界，比亚迪对于丰田而言，是一个正在崛起的竞争对手。更重要的是，那些铸造丰田数十载黄金岁月的特质，我们同样在比亚迪的身上看到了。
注释：
1.cringeworthy adj. so embarrassing, awkward, or upsetting as to cause one to cringe令人尴尬的
2.pertinent adj. relevant to a particular subject与主题相关的
Both East Asian firms share historical parallels. They did not start in the car industry. The company that gave rise to Toyota made automatic looms. BYD’s inaugural products were batteries for mobile phones. From the outset, they were so far behind their global carmaking rivals that they looked to do things differently. In pre-war Japan, Toyota toyed with using charcoal as a fuel instead of petrol. BYD used its battery expertise to focus on EVs and plug-in hybrids, known in China as new-energy vehicles (NEVs). They both honed their skills domestically and when they went abroad started in relatively underdeveloped car markets.
这两家位于东亚的公司有着相似的历史发展轨迹。它们最初并不是发家于汽车行业，丰田公司的前身最初生产的是自动纺织机，比亚迪公司最初生产的是手机电池。与全球的汽车制造竞争对手相比，它们一开始就落于下风，于是便试图另辟蹊径。在战前的日本，丰田曾经尝试用木炭做燃料替代汽油。比亚迪则利用其电池技术专长，专注于电动汽车和插电式混动汽车，这在中国被称为新能源汽车（NEVs）。这两家企业都立足本土，不断磨练自己的技术专长，当它们开始走出国门时，首先选择的是发展相对落后的汽车市场。
Yet these tentative carmaking beginnings quickly developed a life of their own. In a six-year stretch from 1955 until 1961, Toyota’s exports grew more than 40-fold and it has not looked back since. BYD says it took 13 years to manufacture its first million NEVs. It took a year to get to the second million. Six months later it reached 3m. It lists operations in dozens of countries and says it has production bases in places ranging from China to Brazil, Hungary, India and beyond. It makes electric buses in California’s Mojave desert. It is now the world’s second-biggest producer of lithium-ion batteries, behind CATL of China, as well as a maker of commercial vehicles, such as lorries and taxis, and electronic gadgets. These give it a bridgehead for global expansion.
然而，这些探索性的汽车制造序曲很快便谱写出属于各自的乐章。在1955年到1961年的六年中，丰田汽车的出口量增长40多倍，并且此后一直保持高速增长。比亚迪公司称其历时13年产出了一百万辆新能源汽车，生产第二个一百万辆只花了一年。六个月后，总产量达到了三百万。比亚迪在全球多个国家开展业务，并在中国、巴西、匈牙利、印度等国家建立了生产基地。公司还在加利福尼亚的莫哈维沙漠里建立了电动巴士生产基地。比亚迪目前是全球第二大锂离子电池生产商，仅次于同样来自中国的宁德时代。同时，比亚迪还生产诸如卡车和出租车这类商用车辆以及电子产品，这一切都为其全球扩张奠定了坚实基础。
It is on the factory floor and at the bottom line where things really matter, though。 And here, too, BYD is what Tu Le of Sino Auto Insights, a consultancy, calls “the new Toyota”。 The Japanese firm has been the industry’s manufacturing genius for decades; “The Toyota Way” is a combination of continuous improvement, or kaizen, lean manufacturing and unparalleled supply-chain management。 BYD does things differently。 It is one of the world’s most vertically integrated companies, making everything from its own seats to batteries and semiconductors。
But like Toyota, it is a model of efficiency。 Mr Le uses a Silicon Valley term, GSD, to describe its manufacturing prowess。 It stands for “Get shit done”。 Taylor Ogan, whose investment firm, Snow Bull Capital, has a stake in BYD, is awestruck by its level of automation。 “The only humans you see in these factories are doing end-of-the-line inspections or fixing the robots。 BYD has redefined auto manufacturing like Toyota did。” Warren Buffett, an icon of American investing, is also a fan—and a big shareholder。
然而，真正重要的是车间生产和盈利情况。在这方面，比亚迪也被汽车行业咨询公司—中国汽车洞察的创始人涂乐称为“新一代丰田”。数十年来，这家日本公司一直是汽车制造业巨头，“丰田之道”融合了持续改善（即kaizen）、精益制造和极致的供应链管理。比亚迪走了不同的道路。它是全球垂直整合程度最高的公司之一，从座椅到电池和半导体，几乎所有东西都可以自行生产。但像丰田一样，比亚迪以高效闻名，涂乐使用硅谷术语GSD（意指啥都能搞定！）来形容它的制造实力。泰勒·奥根（Taylor Ogan）的投资公司雪牛资本（Snow Bull Capital）持有比亚迪的股份，他对比亚迪的自动化水平感到敬畏。“你在这些工厂里能看到唯一的人类是做终检或修理机器人的员工。比亚迪像丰田一样重新定义了汽车制造。”美国投资大亨沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也是比亚迪的粉丝兼大股东。
注释：
Bottom line: 净利润
损益表中有两个重要概念，所谓top line和bottom line：
营业收入（revenue或turnover）通常位列顶部因此被称为“top line”，而净利润（net income）位列损益表底部，因而被称为“bottom line”。
Efficiency is the engine oil of profitability. BYD gives out maddeningly little up-to-date information about its operations. But on January 30th it gave a preliminary estimate of net profit in 2022. At $2.4bn-2.5bn it was more than five times higher than in 2021. Based on this, Mr Ogan says his firm’s calculations imply that in the past quarter the gross margin of BYD’s auto business surpassed that of Tesla, hitherto the most profitable big carmaker. He believes this reflects the fact that BYD, whose bread and butter comes from building plug-in cars for the mass market, is increasingly selling higher-margin premium EVs. Unlike Tesla, it has a wide variety of ranges and styles, and brings out new models regularly.
高效制造提高了盈利能力。比亚迪对其最新运营状况几乎只字不提，这一点让人抓狂。但在1月30日，它公布了初步估算的2022年净利润，总额达24亿至25亿美元，比2021年的五倍还多。由此，奥根表示，他公司的计算得出，在过去一个季度中，比亚迪的毛利十分可观，把目前最赚钱的大型汽车制造商特斯拉甩在身后。他认为这反映出一个趋势：以大众市场混合动力车为主要基本盘的比亚迪，正在不断提升利润率更高的高端电动车的销量。与特斯拉不同的是，比亚迪拥有多种车系、设计也更多样，且定期推出新车型。
The big unknown is America, where BYD currently sells no cars. It is not the first foreign carmaker to fear a backlash in the homeland of Detroit. Toyota, like other Japanese carmakers, fell victim to a US-Japan trade war in the 1980s. The geopolitical pressures facing BYD are immense. It was expected to make a big inaugural splash at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in January, but this did not happen. A big hurdle to entering America, says Mr Ogan, are the tariffs, dating back to Donald Trump’s presidency, on Chinese-made EV components, such as batteries.
美国将会是比亚迪未来发展道路上一个巨大的不确定因素，也是目前比亚迪尚未踏足的一个市场。比亚迪并非第一家担忧在美遭到抵制的外国车企（毕竟这是一个诞育过汽车之城底特律的国度）。和其他日本汽车品牌一样，丰田也在上世纪80年代的美日贸易战中受到了严重影响。如今，比亚迪同样面临着巨大的地缘政治压力。比亚迪原定将于1月在拉斯维加斯的消费电子展（CES）上大显身手，但最终未能如愿。奥根表示，进入美国市场的一大障碍在于特朗普执政时期颁布的关税政策——中国制造的电池等电动汽车部件需缴纳高额关税。
注释：
make a big splash: To be very successful and garner a lot of public attention.
Build your defences
自强不息
Eventually its launch in America seems inevitable. For all the geopolitical turmoil, American carmakers are so dependent on sales in China, the world’s biggest car market, that they cannot afford to lobby against Chinese entrants at home, lest China shuts them out in response. Moreover, BYD may offer the sort of EVs that, at less than $40,000 a pop, will electrify the mass market. And, if all else fails, BYD can seek Toyota’s help in cracking America, especially if their joint venture in China turns into a budding partnership.
但比亚迪最终进军美国市场似乎是必然趋势。尽管地缘政治局势紧张，但美国汽车制造商十分依赖中国这一全球最大的汽车市场，若是强行游说将中国品牌拒之门外，势必会遭到中国的对等反制，这个代价太大，他们承受不起。此外，比亚迪可能会推出售价不到4万美元的电车，此举有望让电动汽车主导大众市场。即便其他方案都行不通，比亚迪还可以寻求丰田的帮助来打入美国市场，尤其是如果双方通过在中国合资办厂不断深化合作伙伴关系。
For now, it is safe to assume that Toyota recognises as much of a challenge from BYD as it does an opportunity. Like Toyota, BYD doesn’t shout about its strengths yet quietly delivers results. That is another thing that sets it apart from Tesla.
但目前有一件事是可以肯定的：于丰田而言，比亚迪是一分机遇，同样也是一分挑战。和丰田一样，比亚迪深信，喊破嗓子，不如默默甩开膀子，做出成绩。比亚迪不是特斯拉，也不屑成为下一个特斯拉。
翻译组：
Ryan，译海徜徉的一条咸鱼
Charlie，本科在读，实事求是
Mai，男，经济学博士，世界那么大，我想活得久一点
校对组：
Cecilia，2023生活得贵妇一点
Colin，男，崇拜科比的一枚小翻译
Claire，进进退退，摇摇摆摆，探索世界ing
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