原文标题：
Uninsurable America
Climate change is coming for America’s property market
Insurance is supposed to signal risk. Policymakers should let it
无法投保的美国
气候变化正在影响美国的房地产市场
保险本应是风险信号。政策制定者应该放手
[Paragraph 1]
FOR DECADES Americans have been moving to beautiful places that are vulnerable to extreme weather.
几十年来，美国人不断在向美丽地方迁移，而这些地方也容易受极端天气影响。
Florida, once a swampy frontier, is now America’s third-most populous state. It is also the state most often hit by hurricanes.
佛罗里达州曾是一片泽国，现在是美国人口第三多的州。同时，佛罗里达也是经常遭受飓风袭击的州。
By 2015, the Atlantic and Gulf coasts boasted more than $13trn of real estate. Look West and the story is similar.
到 2015 年，大西洋和墨西哥湾沿岸的房地产价值超过 13 万亿美元。西海岸情况也差不多。
Homes are proliferating in the wildland-urban interface, where nature and development anxiously coexist and wildfire season seems never to end.
在荒地与城市交界处，那里房屋数量激增，大自然与房产开发焦虑共存，野火季节似乎永无休止。
[Paragraph 2]
It is climate change that makes extreme weather more common. But the financial cost of storms and fires depends, more than anything else, on how many homes people choose to build in risky places.
气候变化使极端天气越来越频繁。但风暴和火灾造成的经济损失主要取决于人们在危险地区建造的房屋数量。
After adjusting for inflation, there have been more billion-dollar disasters so far in 2023 than any year since America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began keeping records.
扣除通货膨胀因素后，2023 年迄今为止，十亿美元级的灾害次数超过了美国国家海洋和大气管理局有记录以来的任何一年。
Losses as a proportion of GDP have kept stable over the past four decades. But there are big local exceptions: last year hurricane damage cost Florida between 7.5% and 10% of the state’s GDP.
过去40年来，灾害损失占 GDP 的比例保持稳定。但也有些大地方例外：去年佛罗里达州因飓风造成的损失占该州 GDP 的 7.5% -10%。
[Paragraph 3]
Those who enjoy the benefits of living in high-risk areas (such as a majestic ocean view) should shoulder the costs.
那些享受在高风险地区生活好处的人（比如有壮丽的海景）应该承担成本。
However, both federal and state governments ensure that they do not, by subsidising or suppressing property insurance rates in such places. This has encouraged reckless building.
然而，联邦政府和州政府通过补贴或压低这些地方的财产保险费率，确保他们不承担这些成本。这助长了不负责任的建筑行为。
A new report from the First Street Foundation, a non-profit research group, finds that if proper account is taken of climate risk, nearly a quarter of all properties in the continental United States are overvalued.
非营利研究组织“第一街基金会”的一份新报告发现，如果适当考虑气候风险，美国大陆近1/4的房产价值被高估了。
These 39m properties represent a climate-insurance bubble inflated by government.
这 3900 万套房产代表了政府吹大的气候保险泡沫。
[Paragraph 4]
Private insurers burned by huge payouts after disasters are abandoning risky markets such as Florida and California.
由于巨额灾后赔偿，私有保险公司正在放弃佛州和加州等高风险市场。
Homeowners are turning to state-backed insurers of last resort, which offer less coverage for a higher price.
房主们最后只能向国有保险公司买保险，但这些保险公司的保费高且保险覆盖范围少。
When these plans cannot cover claims, taxpayers are often left with the bill.
当这些计划无法承保理赔时，纳税人只能自己买单。
As climate change continues, the uninsurable parts of America will only grow.
随着气候变化的持续发生，美国无法投保的地区只会越来越多。
[Paragraph 5]
At the federal level the National Flood Insurance Programme, which offers subsidised flood insurance to homeowners in hazardous places, is drowning in debt.
在联邦层面，国家洪水保险计划是为危险地区的房主提供补贴洪水保险，但该计划却深陷债务危机。
America’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which runs the programme, is in the process of raising rates to keep it solvent.
负责该计划的美国联邦紧急事务管理局（FEMA）正提高保费率，以维持自身的偿付能力。
But property-owners are rebelling by cancelling their policies, and the politicians who represent them are threatening to intervene.
但业主们正在通过取消保单来反抗，而代表他们的政治家们则威胁要干预。
[Paragraph 6]
Such intransigence is bipartisan. State and national politicians, Democrats and Republicans, prefer to keep rates artificially low, constituents happy and their tax bases intact. This is short-sighted.
这种不妥协的态度是两党共有的。各州和全国的政客，无论是民主党人还是共和党人，都希望人为地压低保费率，让选民满意并保持税基不变。这是目光短浅的行为。
So long as disaster risk is underpriced, people will take too much of it.
只要灾难风险被低估，人们就会冒过多的风险。
And it is unclear how long taxpayers who live in comparatively safe places will be happy to subsidise insurance for those who don’t, especially when the subsidy-guzzlers are rich.
而且，生活在安全地区的纳税人会乐意为不安全地区的纳税人提供保险补贴多久也是个未知数，特别是当补贴大户是富人的时候。
A Congressional Budget Office study from 2007 found that 23% of coastal properties with subsidised flood insurance were second homes.
国会预算办公室 2007 年的一项研究发现，在享受洪水保险补贴的沿海房产中，有 23% 是第二套住房。
Taxpayers should not be helping the Real Housewives of Miami build seaside castles.
纳税人不应该为迈阿密的房产贵妇们建造海边城堡。
[Paragraph 7]
Instead, policymakers should allow private insurers to set actuarially sound rates, so they can keep writing coverage.
相反，政策制定者应该允许私有保险公司设定合理的精算保险费率，这样他们才能继续承保。
Realistic premiums would deter reckless new construction.
合理的保费可以防止不负责任的新建筑行为。
They would also hurt existing homeowners, so politicians would probably have to keep offering government flood insurance, at least temporarily, to those who cannot afford anything else.
保费升高也会伤害现有的房主，因此政治家可能不得不继续向那些无力承担其他费用的人提供政府洪水保险，至少暂时需要。
[Paragraph 8]
Eventually, though, some Americans will need to move to keep safe from rising seas, roaring floods and fast-encroaching flames.
不过，最终还是会有一些美国人需要搬家，以免受海平面上升、猛烈洪灾和迅速蔓延的火灾的侵害。
The government should ease the transition: for example, FEMA could offer buyouts to homeowners who cannot afford their insurance.
政府应该为过渡期提供方便：例如，联邦应急管理局可以为无力支付保险费的房主提供回购服务。
But make no mistake: the longer politicians subsidise building in dangerous places, the worse the pain will be, and the bigger the final bill.
但毫无疑问的是：政治家们越是在危险地区补贴建设，痛苦会越来越多，最终的账单也会越来越大。
（恭喜读完，本篇英语词汇量630左右）
原文出自：2023年9月23日《The Economist》Leaders版块
精读笔记来源于：自由英语之路
本文翻译整理: Irene
本文编辑校对: Irene
仅供个人英语学习交流使用。
【补充资料】（来自于网络）
房屋保险是美国家庭最常购买的一种保险，一些相关数据：
1. 购买率：根据美国国家保险协会的统计数据，大约9成的美国住宅拥有房屋保险。
2. 每户保费：根据美国保险协会的数据，房屋保险的平均年度保费大约为$1,200至$2,000左右。
3. 投保率：由于许多房屋是通过贷款购买的，因此贷款机构通常要求购买房屋保险。绝大多数贷款购买的房屋都有保险。
4. 地区差异：房屋保险的价格和保障范围在不同地区可能会有差异。受地理位置、天气和灾害风险等因素影响，沿海地区和风灾频发地区的房屋保险费用通常较高。
5. 房屋类型：房屋的类型也会影响保险费用。例如，砖砌或钢结构的建筑通常比木结构的建筑更便宜。
【重点句子】（3个）
FOR DECADES Americans have been moving to beautiful places that are vulnerable to extreme weather.
几十年来，美国人不断在向美丽地方迁移，而这些地方也容易受极端天气影响。
It is climate change that makes extreme weather more common. But the financial cost of storms and fires depends, more than anything else, on how many homes people choose to build in risky places.
气候变化使极端天气越来越频繁。但风暴和火灾造成的经济损失主要取决于人们在危险地区建造的房屋数量。
Those who enjoy the benefits of living in high-risk areas (such as a majestic ocean view) should shoulder the costs.
那些享受在高风险地区生活好处的人（比如有壮丽的海景）应该承担成本。
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