继美国通胀超预期后，英国通胀也飙升至10年来最高水平。
据英国国家统计局周三公布的最新数据显示，在能源价格和运输成本高涨的推动下，10月份消费者价格指数（CPI）较去年同期上涨4.2%，创下自2011年11月以来的最大涨幅。
英国央行首席经济学家警告称，这一通胀率已超出英国央行2%目标水平的两倍多，且未来几个月还将持续走高，至明年年初，通胀率可能飙升至5%以上。
Inflation in the UK surged to a 10-year high last month as household energy bills rocketed, data showed Wednesday, bolstering expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise interest rates next month.
Consumer prices rose by 4.2 percent in annual terms in October, leaping from a 3.1-percent increase in September. Both the BoE and a Reuters poll of economists – none of whom had predicted such a big increase – had pointed to a reading of 3.9 percent.
“Today’s inflation data will reinforce the Bank of England’s resolve to act,” Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said.
英国国家统计局办公室介绍，电力、天然气和其他燃料的价格上调导致的家庭能源费用增加成为此次通胀的最大驱动因素。以天然气为例，其价格在过去一年中上升了 28.1%。此外，去年10月前后，受防疫措施影响，一些商品和服务的价格“急剧下跌”，如今CPI增幅同比猛涨，也与去年同期的低基数有关。
与此同时，英国经济增长的日渐放缓引发了市场对于可能陷入滞胀的担忧，也就是在经济增速为零或负增长的情况下，国内发生高通胀的现象，这会使得居民生活水平下降，货币贬值，货币的国际购买力减弱。
The Office for National Statistics said household energy bills were the biggest driver of inflation following the lifting of a regulatory cap on bills last month, with gas prices paid by consumers increasing by 28.1 percent in the year to October.
“A substantial winter surge in inflation remains probable with the rising cost of imported raw materials and higher energy prices likely to lift inflation to around 5 percent next year,” said Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce.
英国央行英格兰银行担心，如果通胀不加以遏制，英国经济可能走向失控。未来几个月英国央行或将加息来提高借贷成本，以控制高通胀率。
英国金融市场预判，为缓解通胀压力，英国央行将在12月16日的货币政策委员会会议上宣布加息15个基点至0.25%，如果那样，英国将成为新冠疫情暴发以来全世界第一个决定加息的主要经济体。
受疫情影响，这场由原油、农产品等大宗商品价格飙升而造成的通胀风暴正在席卷整个欧洲。根据欧盟统计局的数据，欧元区10月份的通胀率创下13年新高，从9月的3.4%上升到4.1%，远高于欧洲中央银行设定的2%的目标。
The BoE is expected to become the first of the world’s major central banks to raise rates since the coronavirus pandemic swept the global economy, with investors and economists increasingly predicting that will happen on December 16.
On Monday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said he was “very uneasy” about the inflation outlook and that his vote to keep rates on hold earlier this month, which shocked financial markets, had been a very close one.
On Tuesday, data suggested Britain’s labor market was withstanding the end of the government’s job-protecting furlough scheme, a key factor for the BoE and its decision on rates.
There were signs in Wednesday’s data of further inflation pressure in the pipeline. Prices charged by factories rose by more than expected, up 8 percent compared with October 2020, the sharpest increase since 2011.
Manufacturers’ input costs jumped by 13 percent, the most since 2008, the Office for National Statistics said.
Across the European Union, the inflation rate rose to 4.1 percent in the year through October fanned by rising energy prices, up from September’s equivalent rate of 3.4 percent, reaching the highest level since 2008, according to Eurostat, the EU statistics agency.
A week earlier, U.S. Federal Reserve also said concerns over higher inflation and tighter monetary policy have become the top concern for market participants, pushing aside the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to U.S. Labor Department, U.S. consumer prices accelerated in October as Americans paid more for gasoline and food, leading to the biggest annual gain in 31 years. The consumer price index jumped 0.9 percent last month after climbing 0.4 percent in September, seeing the largest gain in four months hoisted the annual increase in the CPI to 6.2 percent – the biggest year-on-year rise since November 1990.
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